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Energy Prices (early January 2015)

Early January 2015

Electricity:  The sharp falls in price over the last few weeks leave the market vulnerable to a price bounce if cold weather, infrastructure issues or any international unrest upset the current sense of security.

Weather forecasters continue to expect January to be colder than average, which could increase power demands in the coming weeks.

Global energy market prices continue to fall at an incredible rate. Global producers battling for market shares and a strong US Dollar are putting pressure on oil prices, while Coal prices may drop further as Australian mines restart production and Russia pushes to export in the face of a significantly weakened Rouble.

Gas: The price spike from late November could recur if there is a sustained cold snap or any disruption to supply, or if there is a perception that the sell-off has been overdone.

A “multi-year LNG glut” has been predicted by several analysts as new production in Australia and exports from the US to Asia will be major contributors to the surplus. Reports suggest a 7% rise in global supplies in 2015, and a further 11% rise in 2016.

Summary position:

Oil $57.33/barrel

Coal $65.35/MT

EUA 14 €7.2/TCO2

Gas 48.38p/th Apr 15

Gas 48.75p/th Oct15

Electricity £46.48MWh Apr 15

Electricity £46.63/MWh Oct 15